Leeds vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Witness the high-stakes battle at Elland Road and capitalize on our expert betting insights!

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Leeds vs Nottingham Forest February 6 2026 Match Preview

We analyze the upcoming Premier League clash between Leeds and Nottingham Forest scheduled for February 6, 2026, at Elland Road. Both teams enter this fixture with 26 points, separated only by goal difference in the tightly contested relegation battle.

The six-point gap from the drop zone adds massive stakes to this encounter. Current form shows contrasting patterns. Leeds arrives after a crushing 0-4 home defeat to Arsenal, having won just one of their last seven Premier League matches. However, their home record tells a different story, with 19 points collected at Elland Road compared to only seven away.

Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, remains unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches, including two victories. The reverse fixture on November 9 saw Nottingham Forest secure a convincing 3-1 win at home, adding intrigue to this return match.

Keep in mind that both clubs face significant injury challenges that could heavily influence the outcome.

Forecast 1: Leeds Victory with Home Goal Surge

Our first prediction focuses on Leeds' formidable home advantage combined with their offensive output. The data clearly positions Leeds as favorites in this direct relegation showdown, especially on their home turf.

Leeds collects nearly 75% of their total points at Elland Road (19 home vs 7 away). They have suffered only one home defeat in the past 2.5 months, demonstrating remarkable resilience in front of their supporters. More importantly, Leeds averages over 1.5 goals per home game, showing consistent attacking threat.

Calvert-Lewin's current form stands out as a key factor. The striker's impressive goal-scoring run makes him the primary threat to Nottingham's defense. Given the high stakes and Leeds' proven ability to find the net at home, we see strong value in combining a home win with Leeds' team total over 1.5 goals.

Key factors supporting this forecast:

🏟️ Elland Road dominance: 19 of 26 points earned at home
⚽ Scoring average: Over 1.5 goals per home match
🎯 Calvert-Lewin's exceptional finishing form
📊 Only one home loss in previous 10 weeks

Bet Type	Selection	Odds
Match Winner + Goals	Leeds Win & Leeds Over 1.5 Goals	2.89

Forecast 2: Both Teams to Score in High Stakes Clash

This prediction examines the offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides, leading us to expect an open, goal-filled contest. The match situation practically demands attacking football from both teams.

Tournament positioning reveals the urgency: only six points separate both clubs from the relegation zone. Goal difference serves as the second tiebreaker after points, adding extra incentive for offensive ambition. Leeds currently holds a superior goal tally (31 scored vs Nottingham's 24), but both defenses remain leaky, conceding 42 and 35 goals respectively.

Nottingham's injury crisis significantly impacts their defensive stability. Both first-team goalkeepers (John Victor and Matz Sels) remain sidelined, while defender Nikolo Savona and forwards Chris Wood and Callum Hudson-Odoi also miss out. Nico Williams serves a suspension. This forces 500,000-pound January signing Stefan Ortega into the lineup, just before crucial Europa League playoffs against Fenerbahce.

Leeds also faces attacking personnel issues with Daniel James and Lukas Nmecha unavailable, but their home scoring record remains solid. The combination of both teams' need for victory and defensive absences points toward goals at both ends.

Critical elements to consider:

🚨 Relegation pressure: Six points above drop zone
⚠️ Defensive injuries: Both teams missing key defenders
🥅 Goalkeeper concerns: Nottingham's third-choice keeper starting
📈 Combined goals: 55 goals scored and 77 conceded between both teams

Bet Type	Selection	Odds
Goals Market	Both Teams to Score & Total Over 2.5	2.45

Forecast 3: Value in Leeds Win as Market Overreacts

Our final detailed forecast identifies what we believe is a classic market overreaction to recent form, creating value on the home side. While many bettors may hesitate after Leeds' recent heavy defeats, deeper analysis reveals a different picture.

Nottingham's current four-match unbeaten streak creates a misleading impression. Their last victory against Crystal Palace came despite conceding 1.89 expected goals (xG), indicating fortune rather than dominance. Their away xG of 0.76 paints them as clear underdogs in this matchup.

Leeds' recent defeats came exclusively against top-tier opposition (Arsenal, Newcastle), which shouldn't diminish their credibility against mid-table and lower-table sides. At Elland Road, Leeds transforms into a pressing machine that dominates possession and territory against teams of Nottingham's caliber.

The market shows slight hesitation toward Leeds (2.29 odds) precisely because of this recent form distortion. However, Nottingham's missing key players—especially the suspended Nico Williams and injured Chris Wood—leave them vulnerable against Leeds' aggressive home style. With the referee likely to be card-happy Peter Banks, Leeds' experience in high-pressure home matches gives them an edge.

Why this represents value:

💰 Odds inflated due to recent losses against top teams only
📉 Nottingham's xG away is concerning at 0.76
🎲 Four-match unbeaten run built on luck, not performance
🃏 Referee selection favors experienced home side

Bet Type	Selection	Odds
Match Winner	Leeds Win (P1)	2.29

Complete Predictions Summary

Below is our comprehensive overview of all betting angles for this crucial Premier League fixture. The table includes the three detailed forecasts above plus additional market options our team has identified.

Forecast	Market	Selection	Odds	Key Factor
1	Match Winner & Goals	Leeds Win + Leeds Over 1.5	2.89	Home scoring average
2	1X2 Market	Leeds Win	2.26	Expected goals advantage
3	Goals Market	BTTS + Total Over 2.5	2.45	Injury crisis both sides
4	Corner Market	Nottingham Over 5.5 Corners	N/A	Attacking mentality
5	1X2 Market	Leeds Win	2.29	Value against market trend
6	Corner Market	Nottingham Under 5 Corners	N/A	Leeds defensive approach

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FAQ

When is the Leeds vs Nottingham Forest match?

The match is scheduled for February 6, 2026, taking place at Elland Road.

Why is this match considered a 'six-pointer'?

Both teams have 26 points and are just six points above the relegation zone, making this game critical for survival.

What is Leeds' home form like?

Leeds is very strong at home, earning 19 of their 26 total points at Elland Road.

Are there any major injuries for Nottingham Forest?

Yes, they are missing goalkeepers John Victor and Matz Sels, defender Nikolo Savona, and forwards Chris Wood and Hudson-Odoi.

Who is the recommended goalscorer to watch?

Calvert-Lewin is currently in exceptional form and is the primary threat for Leeds.

What is the expected outcome according to xG stats?

Analysis shows Nottingham has a low away xG of 0.76, while Leeds dominates territory at home, making a Leeds win likely.

What is the best bet for high returns?

The 'Leeds Win & Leeds Over 1.5 Goals' market offers high value at odds of 2.89.

Who is the referee for this match?

The match will be officiated by Peter Banks, known for being strict with cards.